Hello, this is a journey of civilization, and you are welcome to travel to 1005 AD. This year is the second year of Jingde in the Song Dynasty and the twenty-third year of the unification of the Liao Shengzong.In January of this year, the Song Dynasty and the Liao Dynasty signed the Zen Dream. The 25-year war between the two countries finally ended. Although it was impossible to say who won and who lost, the clouds cleared for a while.After the war, there must be a look after the war, so in the spring of this year, Song Zhenzong issued several orders to appease the people in Hebei who had survived the war.On January 23, the emperor heard that, alas, the people in Hebei lacked farmland, and cattle were exempted from tax, so merchants were exempted from tax on selling cattle.Two days later, on January 25, all prisoners in Hebei were pardoned as long as they had not committed capital crimes.Turn over.On February 10th, Emperor Zhengzong further learned about the horrors of the war in Hebei, so he issued an edict to let the people of Hebei recuperate.At the same time, many places along the Hebei border also changed their place names.What turned out to be?You heard the tense names like Weilu Pingrong and Dingqiang, but now they have been changed to calm and calm names like Guangxin and Baoding Baode.

If you look at the map of Hebei now, what are the names of many places in Hebei?Anna's decisions were mostly decided that year.If we have the opportunity to walk around the land of Hebei in early 1005, when the spring breeze blows on our faces, you will definitely feel that these good days and this spring have come at the same time.But this is from the perspective of the common people, and from the perspective of the emperor, everyone will be happy if there is no war, but the emperor will also be concerned about another issue, which is my government and the public, both inside and outside, and even how future generations will evaluate the deal I just signed.Chai Yuan's alliance?The emperor would be worried about this, so here comes an opportunity. The emperor can take the opportunity to detect reactions from all aspects.

What opportunity?Do you want the battle to be over?But the emperor was on the front line at this time, and he was conducting military campaigns in Chanzhou, so he had to return to Tokyo and Bianliang.Then would you like to hold a pick-up ceremony in Bianliang?Is this ceremony considered a triumphal ceremony?Is it better to make silver jewelry more grand or as simple as possible?Emperor Zhenzong just calculated and calculated that the day he returned to Bianliang happened to be the anniversary of the death of the Empress Dowager, so he released a test balloon and told everyone this, in order to respect the Empress Dowager, otherwise I willGo back to the city quietly, don't even need to shoot a gun, haha, don't even have to play music, just keep everything simple for the rest of your life, okay?If you really think so, are you the emperor?Wouldn't it be over if you just keep an eye on this matter?Hey, no, Zhenzong said, it just so happens that there is an official in our court who is recognized as a great Confucian scholar named Du Go.Du was so unstoppable that he was nicknamed Du Wanjuan.In his heart, Zhenzong said, "Hey, let's send someone to ask Du Gao, an etiquette expert, how should we conduct the ceremony on our return trip?"Du Yao's reply came immediately, saying that when King Wu of Zhou defeated Zhou, he sang and danced all the way, and now your emperor is also triumphant.There is no problem in holding a celebration ceremony and it is completely in compliance with the etiquette system.You see, this is comparing this Zen Yuan Alliance to King Wu's defeat of Zhou. They were both extraordinary victories and unquestionable triumphs.

He expressed his stance to Daru, but Zhenzong was not so reassured, saying, "Look, Daru has expressed his stance. You senior officials around you, alas, also have objections and express your stance. Should we do things in a big way, or should we keep everything simple?"Everyone said that such a big happy event had to be held and they were determined to do it.Wenzong said, okay then, haha, then I will listen to you and we will do it.You can tell, this is a very important attitude test.

So what do you think of the Zen Yuan Alliance?Of course, the emperor was very satisfied with this test. Everyone thought this was a pretty good result. How could this not be the end of the matter?Is the Alliance of Zen Abyss a victory, or is it a humiliating alliance under the city?This issue was still placed so prominently here, which not only troubled Song Zhenzong at that time, but also allowed later generations to comment, and it indeed caused huge controversy.Well, today we will travel back to 1005 with this question. The Song Dynasty only had two years.

It is said that the Zen-Yuan Alliance signed in 1005 AD is very rare in Chinese history. It is a very complete negotiation record, which is the entire negotiation process. The mentality of all parties, including the final documents and historical materials, are all available.Among them, what everyone is most likely to pay attention to is the money, the so-called 300,000-year-old coins that the Song Dynasty gave to the Liao Dynasty every year. We know this concept from middle school history textbooks.Then the number of 300,000 was finally settled, and the whole process was very dramatic.

First, the negotiator from the Song Dynasty was called Cao Liyong. Before setting off, the emperor had to explain the bottom line of the negotiation to him.This is what the emperor told him. We won't talk about the land issue. We can't give up even an inch of land, but we can give him some money as appropriate. If it doesn't work, it's not impossible for us to give him 1 million tax coins a year.The so-called broken coins do not mean a one-time payment, but how much money should be paid every year. This is what the emperor said. When Cao Li comes out with her front foot, the prime minister will take it, and he is afraid that we will cheat.

I know the number the emperor told you, but when you go back to the Liao Dynasty, as long as the broken coins you promise to the other party are more than 300,000, I will definitely kill you. What else can Cao Liyong say?So when we got there, we couldn't let go at the negotiation table even if we fought to death. We spent seven days with the Khitans.In the end, hey, it was really the 300,000 that Kou Zhun said, of which 100,000 taels of silver were donated every year, and 200,000 horses were donated, and this was the result.After Cao Liyou returned to Zenzhou, she went to report to the emperor. Song Zhenzong happened to be eating at that time. The emperor was not allowed to see outsiders during the meal. However, he was anxious as to what the outcome of the negotiation was, so he sent the eunuch around him to tell him., went to the door and asked him what the deal was.Cao Lixiong thought to himself, neither I nor the emperor reported such an important matter. I talked to you and the eunuchs without saying a word, and asked each one without saying a word, so the eunuchs had no choice but to go back to their houses.Song Zhenzong became even more anxious. This, this, this, this, this, this, might cause me some big trouble outside.You dare not say this, but you go out and ask him out, and the eunuch comes to ask Cao Liyong again. He has no choice but to put his hand on his face and make a three-character sign on his face to give a hint.The eunuch went back to talk, but he didn't tell me the answer. He just said that.Song Zhen was always surprised. He said, three million, don't ask, three million, huh, this is too much.While Zhenzong was eating, he comforted himself and said, Oh, that's okay. It would be okay if 3 million could solve the problem.After the emperor finished his meal, Cao Liyou kowtowed when the emperor and his ministers met like this. She kept admitting her mistake and said that the minister was incompetent. She promised to go out. The money was too much. I promised to go out for 300,000 yuan a year. Song Zhenzong was overjoyed when he heard that it was only 300,000 yuan., I almost jumped up with joy, the happiness came too suddenly.

When I was reading this historical material, I thought about the plot that had to be turned over many times. Look at the ups and downs of emotions, and even a professional screenwriter today wouldn't be able to come up with it.That may be because the story is so well told, so the 300,000 pieces of broken coins every year left a deep impression on the people who came after you. Therefore, everyone has always had three questions in their minds. First, do they attack you before they attack you?The negotiated contract, is this the king of the city?The first question is, and the second question is that payment is required every year in the contract. Is this the same as paying tribute as a vassal?Third, is peace bought with money a loss of power and an insult to the country?Alas, this is not the case. Today we are here to raise these questions. In fact, not long after the signing of the Moral Alliance, such voices and doubts appeared in the court of the Song Dynasty. So today we will answer these questions.

First of all, let’s clarify that the alliance under the city should not be counted. What is the alliance under the city?The enemy has surrounded us and is about to break the city, but we have no choice, so at this time we agree to some humiliating conditions and you retreat. This is called a dream under the city. It is a choice without a choice, but this timeThis was obviously not the case in the Song-Liao War.

My daughter listened to what we said in the last issue. The Liao army under Chiyuan City almost failed to conquer any big strongholds.Coach Xiao Tanli has a full package and is alone in the attack. As for the Song Army, I can choose whether to fight or negotiate.I have some initiative on the battlefield, so signing a contract when I still have strategic options is not called a treasure under the city. The reason is very simple.

Okay, second question, does the 300,000 annual coins given to the Liao Dynasty every year count as paying tribute as a vassal?This is not the case. Why is it not? Because you look at the final agreement text.This is the wealth left by the Zenyuan Alliance to the historical community. Every word is in the final agreement text, and the words are written with great care.Let me translate it into vernacular and tell it to you. It emphasizes that we are giving money, but this is not just money, this is my family’s souvenir. Look, no, this is only 100,000, is it money?There are another 200,000 batches donated, which are the expenses for living and traveling with local specialties. This is after the reconciliation between the two families.Alas, brother, do I have money?I'm helping you, so this is a grant.What needs to be emphasized is that this is written in the text of the agreement. It says that I will not send envoys to send the money to you. I will only ask the people in my financial department to send people to move the money to Xiong.On the state border.

This is today's great case. Come and take it for yourselves. Listen to it. This is to prevent misunderstandings from all sides, and a lot of effort has been put into wording it.Therefore, the 300,000-year-old coin was definitely not a form of tribute, as more than 100 years passed.The Shaoxing Collegial Conference held by the Southern Song Dynasty and the Jin Dynasty are completely different and cannot be confused.Okay, then there is only one last question left, and it is also the most critical question, which is the peace bought with money. Is it a loss of power and an insult to the country?Frankly speaking, we cannot answer this question because it is a value judgment. Peace is peace, and there will be no war anyway.But if we evaluate whether peace is good or bad, people in different eras and situations will have different answers.

What we can talk about now is the Alliance of Chanyuan. It is definitely not a victory, let alone a glory. It is a rational and balanced agreement reached by two forces after a long-term confrontation and fierce collision. Both sides can achieve it.This is the fact that he accepted the arrangement.Fortunately, as contemporary Chinese, we can separate ourselves. We neither occupy the Song Dynasty nor the Liao Dynasty. They are both our ancestors. We can look at this large part of the facts of that year relatively objectively., so we can transform the problem.First, why is this arrangement formed?Regarding China's historical process, does he have any intention of such an arrangement?So if he has a heart, where is his heart?Let’s answer the question first, why is this arrangement formed?If we really go back to the historical scene, to 1005 and earlier, the people of that generation know clearly that the Song Dynasty and the Liao Dynasty have reached the point where it is difficult for either one to destroy the other.Even before the war, both sides had a certain understanding that the final outcome would be with him. This is not just speculation here, it is factual.

Let’s look at the Song Dynasty first.It is said that six years ago, in the second year of Xianping, in the summer of 999 AD, the most senior general in the Song Dynasty at that time was named Cao Bin.Cao Bin is incredible. Cao Bin was responsible for several major battles in the early years of the Song Dynasty. For example, he led the troops to destroy the Southern Tang Dynasty. At this time, Cao Bin was already 68 years old. He was serving as the Privy Council at that time. He was the oneWhen he was the Minister of Defense, was Song Zhenzong sick because of him?He took tens of thousands of taels of silver to Cao Mansion to see him.When a person is about to die, his words are good, and he has reached the last stage of his life.

Song Zhenzong asked him that the Liao Dynasty might invade again, so how should our country respond?Then Cao Bin gave a general judgment. He said that I expected that the grassland empire in the north would eventually restore the reconciliation with the Song Dynasty that we had in the Taizu era.You see, Cao Bin's judgment was like this. This was the Privy Councilor and the Minister of Defense at the time. They were fighting back and forth between the two sides. In the end, they might have to negotiate. Zhuo Qian could not win over anyone. So what was the emperor's attitude?Song Zhenzong's answer at the time was this, and I am willing to aggrieve myself for this matter for the sake of the common people in the world.There is no problem in reconciling with the Khitan, but there are three conditions. First, the implementation of the program, which means that our program and laws cannot be changed.Second, the main thing is to keep the country’s face.Third, it is both long-term benefit and the pursuit of the long-term interests of the country. This was the emperor's stance when faced with the idea of ​​peace talks.

When you hear this, you will understand that in 1004, 1005, the underlying logic of Song Zhenzong’s roles on the war front actually took shape six years ago.As I just said, no inch of land can be given away, no dignity can be lost, the emperor himself can be aggrieved a little, but he can settle accounts from the perspective of long-term interests. This bottom line was set in 999.
After looking at the Song Dynasty, let's look at the Liao Dynasty. Alas, the desire for peace is also very obvious.If you look at the entire negotiation process of the Zenyuan Alliance, it was the Liao Dynasty who proposed that the two sides negotiate, and it was the Liao Dynasty who wrote the first letter of peace. The 300,000 yuan that was taken the initiative to make concessions during the negotiations really cannot be compromised. It really cannot be compromised.,that's all.You see, it is also the Liao Dynasty. To put it bluntly, this time the Liao Dynasty seems to be aggressive and mobilizes the whole country's troops to go south. However, it sets a very limited war goal for itself. If it fights well with restraint, let's put Youyun TenGet it back in Guannan Erzhou among the six states.If the fight is not good, well, even if the fight is not good, I have to test out the new balance point between the two sides and where it is to ensure that there will be no more fights in the future.

Why?Empress Dowager Xiao, who was in power at this time in the exquisite Liao Dynasty, was also old and she had to consider her funeral.Empress Dowager Xiao was an amazing woman. She became the empress at the age of 16, gave birth to a son at the age of 18, and her husband died before she was 30, so she became the de facto leader when she became the empress dowager.These past 20 years have been difficult. He, a woman, defeated so many Khitan nobles on the grassland, blocked the Song Dynasty's massive attack, and brought his son Yelu Longxun, Shengzong of the Liao Dynasty, into adulthood. He is now over fifty years old. For that timeFor women on the grassland, one issue must be considered at an advanced age. Just in case one day I am no longer here, I want to leave a less complicated political situation for my son so that he can control it.

From this perspective, it is not difficult to see that Empress Dowager Xiao’s large-scale campaign has a certain meaning.What?It is called using fighting to promote talks and war to promote peace, which has this meaning.So if you look at the Battle of Zenyuan from 1004 to 1005, although the two sides were very aggressive, sending out overwhelming armies and marching in person, hey, both sides actually had the intention to sit down and negotiate, soWhen you look at the historical ending that it evolved into, it's not surprising to him.Then we have to analyze it. If both parties must negotiate for peace, what are the pros and cons of the final outcome reached by both parties?Next, we will calculate the account for him in detail.

From the perspective of our modern people, there are actually two types of wars. One is fighting for the sake of righteousness, and it is a life-or-death fight.For example, this was the case during the Chinese War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression. Mr. Jiang Baili said well that no matter whether you win or lose, you just don't want to make peace with him and fight him to the end.Every nation has such wars in its growth process. This is why Sun Tzu said in The Art of War that soldiers are important matters of the country, the place of life and death, and the path to survival.That is to say, as long as this kind of battle is fought, it is either life or death, survival or destruction, there is no middle ground.But there is another kind of war, one that deals with less extreme conflicts. To put it bluntly, it is a war that can settle scores.You see, those of us outside the battlefield have passionate expectations for war, but you really have to be on the battlefield, especially if you are the commander-in-chief.Alas, many times my mind is filled with war.

Haha, it’s also Sun Tzu, doesn’t he also have a section in The Art of War?My grandson will settle the accounts for you with just his fingers. The cost is thousands of miles, food, internal and external expenses, guests, money for wives, cracks in chariots and armor, every day costs thousands of gold.Sun Tzu just wants to remind you that war is a waste of money.Therefore, it has a famous saying, more is a win, less is a loss, nothing is more.Judging from the subsequent results, the Song-Liao War in 1005 should belong to the latter, and it was a war that could settle scores.So today we will sit down and do the calculations carefully, and look at the rational and logical calculations behind the smoke of war, which is to use reason to calculate.There is nothing to calculate here in the Liao Dynasty, because after one battle, you can get 300,000 tax coins every year, and it is very cost-effective to ensure the harvest during droughts and floods.The body is in the Song Dynasty. The book in my hand is called Qianqiu Right and Wrong, written by Zhao Dongmei, a professor from the Department of History of Peking University, who is also the academic consultant of our program.He mainly calculates these accounts in this book. How much is the annual coin?Does it constitute a burden to the Song Dynasty?Calculating that, the annual tax coins given by a certain Chanyuan to the Liao Dynasty was 300,000. What proportion did it account for in the Song Dynasty’s annual fiscal revenue?10“?5” No, only 0.4%, so it basically does not constitute a burden.
The question is whose money is not blown by the strong wind, right?I don’t necessarily have to give it to you if I have money, so I have to settle a second account.

Is it a good deal for this amount of money?If there was no peace on the northern border of the Song Dynasty, a large number of military assistants would be needed. How much would it cost each year?1.5 million?Then the 300,000 yuan given out each year only accounts for 2% of the 15 million yuan. This is not included. If we really want to fight a war, these are just assistants. If we really want to fight a war, it will be spent on military expenses. So do you think this money is a good deal?There is also a third account. Why did the Song Dynasty go to war with the Liao Dynasty?It’s for the Sixteen States of Youyun.Then why the Sixteen States of Youyun?The basic purpose is to make the northern border more secure, and now it has cost 300,000 to achieve this result, right?Who will guard the border for you?The Liao Dynasty spent 300,000 to guard it for you. The Liao Dynasty's court restrained its troops and people for the Song Dynasty and was not allowed to go south to rob.Because of peace?Did it even prevent the Song Dynasty from the invasion of the Youmu people further north?In the Song Dynasty, these 300,000 people were equivalent to supporting such a border security team every year.If you want to do it yourself, it will cost 15 million per year. Now if you hire them to do it, it will cost 300,000 per year. So do you think it is worth it?Hey, I also saw someone calculating the fourth account.

It sounds nice to say that 300,000 years of coins are given every year, but in fact the Song Dynasty did not pay at all.Why?Want peace?Both sides can do business on the border. This is called the magpie field, which is the word magpie in question.The Song Dynasty, regardless of its economic strength or the richness of its products, certainly took the majority of the profits from the Quechang transaction, which was more than 300,000 per year. So what is the essence of the 300,000-year-old coin?It's just that some of the profits earned from doing business are set aside and returned.

I don’t know if you have a feeling that Song Dynasty obviously spends 300,000 yuan a year to buy Ping An, but it seems that it is still expert after calculation. This is a bit inconsistent with our intuition, right?This is actually the little innovation that the Zen Yuan Alliance brought to the evolution of Chinese history.Things that couldn't be settled in the past have now become account books spread out on the table. Not only can they be calculated once, but they can be calculated every year. Both of you can keep an eye on the calculations. This makes the political game between Song and Liao more difficult.New variables are introduced.Let’s briefly look at two new variables. The first variable is that both Song and Liao have more sophisticated strategic tools that can adjust their relationship.It turns out that fighting is all about running around and being a sniper. Now I have a small screwdriver, haha.Turning things that cannot be settled into things that can be settled means that the relationship between the two parties can be adjusted through the number of money, which is a number, and the relationship can be adjusted by fine-tuning this number.

Now I'm paying 300,000 to ask you to leave. If the balance of our power changes and is broken in the future, then we don't necessarily have to start the war again, right?Let's just talk about numbers here. For example, if you are strong in Scribing, can I add it to buy Ping An?300,000 becomes 400,000, 600,000 becomes 1 million, we can talk about numbers and vice versa, hehe.If I, the Song Dynasty, become stronger, I can also give 100,000 broken coins, okay?Is it okay not to give it?Can I come back to you and ask for it?That’s all.The abacus can solve the problem, and the sword and gun can also solve the problem.We had more choices at that time, and we solved it by pulling on the turntable.In fact, this is what happened later.We are now in 1005 AD. Let's say that 38 years later it will be 1042. The Liao Dynasty feels that its side is stronger. You see, the Song Dynasty can't even defeat Xixia. Hey, let's negotiate. Can we break the wall?Longer?My strength, you see my tendons have grown, and the Song Dynasty said, well, it's not that it can't grow, but we can't grow in vain, what about you?You have to work and get paid more.

But you helped me deal with Xixia, and the result of the subsequent negotiations was this. The Sui coin increased from 300,000 to 500,000, but the Liao Dynasty agreed to help the Song Dynasty suppress Xixia. So from the perspective of the Song Dynasty, what is this money?It costs an extra 200,000 yuan per year, but it allows the Daliao cavalry to be our mercenaries in the Song Dynasty and solve the serious troubles in the northwest of our Song Dynasty. Do you think it is cost-effective?Of course it is cost-effective. If you look at the means of war, it does not mean that they cannot be used, but there is a problem with it, that is, you will either win a big victory or lose the war.But now it has become a calculation and bargaining, and this businessman's method can finely adjust the relationship between the two parties. This means that the country's strategic toolbox has an additional useful tool. Is this a variable?The second variable is that both parties have more ties.

Originally, everyone in the grassland and the Central Plains lived their own lives. Unless there was a war, they could live without contact with each other until death, right?You must know that before the Dust Alliance, the Central Plains often could not defeat the grasslands, and the Central Plains often had to spend money to eliminate disasters. This is not uncommon in history.This is not the first time that Song Zhenzong gave money. For example, in 200 BC, Liu Bang, the emperor of the Han Dynasty, was surrounded by the Huns at Baishan Mountain, which is near Datong, Shanxi today.How was it resolved in the end?After spending money to bribe the wife of the Xiongnu Chanyu, the problem was solved.Also in 626 AD, Emperor Taizong Li Shimin of the Tang Dynasty had just become emperor. Before his chair was warm, the Turkic army attacked the city of Chang'an and the Weishui Bridge. What would happen in the end?To avoid disasters by losing money, it is said that the Turks were cleared away after they emptied the money in Chang'an's treasury.But please note that unlike the Zen Yuan Alliance we talked about this year, these two amounts of money are given in one lump sum.Although I am spending money to buy peace, what I buy is that you withdraw your troops. I only buy this action. I have no other effect. I have not changed you. I just give you money and you leave. It’s that simple. Wait until the Central Plains regime calms down.Come, take revenge.Haha, because the revenge of Emperor Gaozu of the Han Dynasty would not be avenged until Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty, and he would take revenge on the Xiongnu like leaving the court and sweeping the caves.Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty was more ruthless, otherwise he could not be called the Emperor of Eternity. Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty only waited for three years before he fell out with the Turks and destroyed the Eastern Turks.

You see, in the two cases I just talked about, the Central Plains regime does not recognize that the grassland regime has the right to coexist with me. The essence of why I want to give you this money is just an expedient measure on my part. It is your right toIt's the result of my blackmail, so I don't have to promise you anything. You can just leave now, and I will retain the right to bear the burden in the future.We are separate, but the Zen dream in 1005 was different, did you notice?300,000 is not a one-time payment, it is paid every year, otherwise it would be called broken coins.In this way, it not only legally recognizes the right of both parties to coexist, but also agrees on the long-term future-oriented rights and obligations relationship between the two parties, right?The 300,000 pieces of broken coins was not a one-time payment by the Song Dynasty. It was a one-time loss. It was paid every year. This gained a very valuable thing, which was the long-term shaping of the other party's behavior pattern.My brother will give you money every year, but the money is not free. If you take my money from my brother, you must restrain your tribes and troops and not come over to cause trouble.If you don't behave well, I won't give you the money.This is a constraint on the other party's behavior. What I spend money on is not your departure this time, but your long-term behavior pattern that meets my expectations.

So I saw some people calculating accounts like this, saying that the 300,000 tax coins given by the Song Dynasty to the Liao Dynasty was essentially money. We can also regard this money as money to cultivate a group of pro-send factions within the Liao Dynasty.Hehe, think about it, as long as there is no war, you can get 300,000 yuan every year if you don't apply for it, and if there are droughts and floods, the harvest is guaranteed.This money was indeed not much for the Song Dynasty, but it was not much for the Liao Dynasty.If we imagine a scenario in the future, if someone in the Liao Dynasty says that it would be better to fight with his grievance alliance and start fighting again, then there will definitely be people in the Liao Dynasty who will jump out to oppose it, right?For example, officials in charge of finance will jump out and object, saying that if other companies don't fight, the 300,000 they receive every year will be in vain. If they fight, not only will the 300,000 be lost, but you may not be able to win. Such voices will definitely appear.

So you see, 300,000 per year is equivalent to cultivating a group of people who speak for peace within the Liao Dynasty. Doesn’t this make the peace treaty signed in 1005 more binding?Now that we have talked about the shaping of the other party's behavior, I think we need to emphasize again that not all wars can be settled. The reason why we talk about settling scores in war today is just to use the topic of Zenyuan Alliance to look at it.Even war is very complicated, and it also has a side of rational weighing, which is just one side.

James Phelan, a professor of political science at Stanford University, wrote an article in 1995 called A Rationalist Interpretation of War. This article has a very interesting angle and can be regarded as a classic paper discussing war in modern international relations.He actually asked questions that everyone was concerned about. First, why do you think the war broke out?Second, if we understand why the war broke out, then let's discuss how to prevent the war from breaking out.

As soon as the question was asked, everyone was a little confused. Why did the war break out?Wow?There are too many reasons for this, it may be because of personal ambition, it may be because of the interest pattern, or it may be simply a misunderstanding, a misfire, or even just like the Trojan War, just to steal a beautiful woman, Helen, right?Every war has different causes, which cannot be discussed.If you look at Feilun's article, it's brilliant right here. He turned the question over and asked it in a different way.Sometimes academics are like this. If you change the question, wow, your realm will open up immediately and the problem will be solved.What's the alternative to asking the question?I'm not asking why the war broke out, but asking you to ask the other way around. There will always be negotiations before the war, even if there are a few threats and yelling at each other.

At this stage, the negotiation stage, why did this negotiation break down?It's essentially the same problem, but from a different perspective.When you stand on the battlefield, what you see is the passion of fighting. But once you are at the negotiation table and you look at it from this perspective, you will understand immediately.yes?If I decide to go to war, it must be because I think I can win and I have a high chance of winning. Therefore, when a war breaks out, it is not something that comes to my head and makes me angry. No, it must be someone's rational calculation.Bar?When we stand at the negotiation table, we can think about it. Suppose I am at the negotiation table now. I feel that I am reasonable and represent justice, and the other party is simply a bastard.

But when I did the math, I found that there were only 50 brothers behind me, and there were 200 on the other side, so why should I fight?Right?I am completely rational, so I can only admit defeat. I will not hit him, but if 200 people on the other side are unarmed and 50 brothers behind me have guns, then what are you going to fight, right?My hand must be full of justice, and I must be a bright guy. If you shoot the gun on the table, you have to recognize it.

Of course, what if the benefit everyone is fighting for is only 10,000 yuan, right?I calculated that even if I won the fight, it wouldn’t be enough to pay my brother’s medical bills, so I still wouldn’t fight.So you see, the decision to break up the negotiation is difficult to make, and there must be rationality behind this decision.So your perspective at the negotiating table is this. There is no need to fight all the wars in the world. Everyone puts all their strength on the table. How many people do you have? How strong are you? What are your concerns? All factors are put on the table.Go on, after everyone has done the math, you see that I have a better chance of winning than you, so you shouldn’t fight, right?Now you listen to my arrangement, so why fight?After hearing this, a wonderful conclusion came out, that is, if a war breaks out, why?There is only one reason. You see, the academic qualifications are unified into one reason. Is it because someone made a miscalculation?Right?It must be on the negotiating table. Both sides feel that they have a better chance of winning than the other party. That is impossible. There can only be one winner in the end.So there must be one party who either underestimated or overestimated a certain factor, or figured out an important variable.

So if you look at the analysis here, the second question is how to avoid war. The answer to this question has also come out. If you want to reduce war, one of the directions of efforts is to promote the sharing of information, transparency of strategy, and all efforts at the negotiation table.Maybe if all the factors are discussed and calculated thoroughly, one party will definitely be intimidated and the war will not break out.This is of course just a piece of logic in his very complicated paper.

Well, the reason why I want to introduce Phelan's paper to you today is actually to ask you to notice that there is a rational side behind even the most intense conflicts. Let me give you an example from around us. In daily lifeLet’s take another example to experience it.For example, many parents will angrily scold or even beat their children. If you ask them why, they will say that our child is too unsatisfactory and bad, right?I was so angry that I lost my mind.Really?Have you really lost your mind?We might as well ask him to think about it at this time. Suppose that when you are angry, your child's teacher calls you, or your own leader calls you, and you pick up the phone immediately. Can you change your attitude?, talk nicely?Sure, where have you lost your mind?You can switch over in a second. Why have you lost your mind?So you see, there is no such thing as being mad at a child, you are just settling scores in your mind.You know that you can't afford to offend your child's teacher or your own leader, but if you vent to your child now, the child won't resist, so you don't have to pay the price.It's that simple. It's a sad fact, but it's a fact.

So I would like to thank the Song and Liao parties in 1005. They are actually the ancestors of modern Chinese people. The people at that time wanted to thank them for putting aside their swords, guns and grudges and fighting for 120 years of peace for both sides.We, the descendants, would like to thank them for exploring a new conflict resolution model from fighting to settling accounts.

Our pursuit of a better life comes from the opening of every extraordinary door.Casarte was born for love, the art of connecting home.In the last segment of our program today, I also want to talk about a topic, which is Song Zhenzong's role in the whole process.The general impression is that Song Zhenzong is a coward, and we can't speak for him, because there are a lot of such stories in the surviving historical materials that give everyone this impression.For example, everyone is familiar with the story that Emperor Zhenzong of Song Dynasty personally went on the expedition, but Kou Zhun forced him to go on the road. Then he was a little hesitant on the way, should I go to the front line?How about I just run away and go to the south?At this time, an old general named Gao Qiong gave him some analysis.This Gao Qiong is an incredible man, a famous founding general, and he is now 70 years old.He is old, so having an elder in the family is like having a treasure, and his words have weight in front of the emperor.How did Gao Qiong analyze it?He asked the emperor to take a look and said, let's take a look at the soldiers around us. Their families and wives are all open in the capital.If our team starts running south, do you think these people will follow you?No, they will flee on the road, so when the time comes when our monarchs and ministers will be miserable, there is no need to hesitate and hurry up to the front line of Chanzhou.

What the old general said, then when we get to the front line, whether Song Zhenzong dares to cross the Yellow River is another question. It is the 70-year-old veteran Gao Qiong who will take action.Gao Qiong was illiterate, so what he said was rough, saying that if Your Majesty, you don't come to Beicheng, the people of Huanghe will be as sad as if their parents were dead.There was a civil servant next to me who didn't like to hear it. He said Gao Qiu, what did you say?Gao Qiong was furious in the room, saying that you literati, you people who write articles and poems, the enemy is right in front of you, and you said I am rude, come on, come on, read a poem to the enemy, do you think they are right??Then he even dragged Song Zhenzong across the Yellow River, haha.Anyway, looking at the historical materials at this stage of the Zenyuan Alliance, this is my impression of Emperor Zhenzong. He was a coward. In the end, he let the people around him drive him. Alas, there was nothing he could do about it when he was on the front line. Historical narrative is about telling stories. In a wonderful storySince there is already someone like Kou Zhun, how can there be a positive character like Gao Qiong I just talked about.Hey, there is no other way, so I have to trouble the supporting role of Emperor Zhenzong to play a good role in the green clothes to set off the red flowers.So if I write you off as a coward, you have nothing to complain about.But if you think that in a real historical scene, the emperor may be a supporting role, it is impossible, he must be the protagonist.

Anyone with social experience knows that when making major decisions, the final decision-maker may want to postpone the decision-making time as late as possible. He may want to listen to opinions from all sides in advance, and may also consider various aspects of the decision-making process.Such choices are put on the table for everyone to fully discuss, but the final decision must be made by him, and it is unlikely to be forced by others.The reason is simple, right?The decision-maker may not necessarily be the most capable, but he must bear the most responsibility.Kou Zhun, no matter how capable you are, what can you be responsible for?Isn’t it your own life?No matter how incompetent Song Zhenzong is, the entire country he is responsible for is the ancestors of his old Zhao family. This responsibility is different, and of course there are more dimensions to consider when making decisions.Therefore, when we evaluate a decision-maker, we cannot look at the process, but at the results.

No matter what kind of performance Emperor Zhenzong of the Song Dynasty performed during the process, whether it was hesitation, timidity, or indecision, didn't he end up hurting the front line?Did he go to the front line?Did it appear north of the Yellow River?Are you directing the deployment of troops across the country?Did he say harsh words in front of the Liao envoy?He said that what I am defending is the inheritance of my ancestors, and I cannot lose it. There is no reason for your Liao Dynasty to want land. If you insist on it, then I will have to fight you to the end.Of course, I also feel that the people in Hebei are suffering too much. If we can use money to solve the problem and subsidize you some money, as long as it does not damage the dignity of my court, that is not impossible.You see, this statement in front of the Liao envoy can be regarded as having an attitude, a bottom line, and a sense of proportion.

What I say here is not to send Zhenzong to rebut the case, but to do one thing that our Civilization Journey program particularly wants to do. That is, since we are telling history year by year according to the rhythm of history, we must assume that weAs people at that time, we live at the scene of history. In this way, we have more opportunities and more responsibilities to understand the weaknesses of each historical party, and to experience their love and love over time.

As the protagonist of the historical scene, Emperor Zhenzong of the Song Dynasty saw many more problems and factors to deal with than us descendants and those bystanders.As an emperor, he could not be as impassioned as Kou Zhun. He had to be cautious and walk on thin ice.Why?Because there are so many factors that he has to consider, which are very subtle, very obscure, and even inhumane.Let me give you an example here, which is an extra chapter about the Zen Alliance. It is a factor that many people involved have not paid much attention to.It is said that when the Song and Liao sides were confronting each other at the foot of Chanzhou City, the Liao army was very frightened. Why did the Liao army go deep thousands of miles away, with the Song army's stronghold and victorious army behind them?

For example, the general in Dingzhou is called Wang Chao. He has at least 100,000 elite troops from the Hebei Army in his hands. If the 100,000 are outflanked, he might be able to attack from both front and back with the Song Army in Chanzhou City.Therefore, it is normal for the Liao army to be afraid. This is the situation on the surface.But what is the real situation?The real situation is that Song Zhenzong is more worried about this dynasty.By the way, Emperor Zhenzong issued an order to this dynasty on November 29, 1004, the previous year?He said you should bring the team over quickly, the emperor is here.But it’s been January, January of 1005, more than a month has passed, and Wang Chao still hasn’t come. Why hasn’t he come?There are many possibilities, but there is one possibility that cannot be ruled out, that is, if Wang Chao wants to support his troops and respect himself, why do vagrants respect themselves?I don't know, if the Song army was defeated, he had 100,000 elite Hebei troops in his hand, and he would have a bargaining chip to defect to the Liao Dynasty at that time.This is not something we have precedent in the history of serving food, where something like this happened just 58 years ago.

It is said that 946 AD was the war in which the Khitan destroyed the Later Jin Dynasty. Was the general of the Later Jin Dynasty named Du Chongwei?He led an army of 300,000 people but stood still in Hebei. In the end, Du Chongwei surrendered to the Khitan, which indirectly led to the fall of Kaifeng City on the emperor's side. From the perspective of the parties involved in the Later Jin Kingdom, is the current situation exactly the same?So Song Zhenzong was afraid of taking risks in order not to push Wang Chao into desperation, and the court was very secretive about this matter. Everyone saw through it but didn't say anything, right?What if you tell the truth and force Wang Chao to rebel?Sure enough, after Chen Yun's alliance was reached, the court still wanted to call Chao Chao, but it was careful not to let him feel that the court had become suspicious of him, but also to deprive him of his military power bit by bit, and finally deprive him of his military power.If he is not offended, of course he will never be allowed to lead troops again.

This matter was wiped out and dealt with in such a vague way. You see such huge battlefield variables, but I couldn't explain it clearly at the time because I was afraid that it would actually come true.It would be inconvenient to explain and impose punishment afterwards, because we have no evidence that the dynasty is really going to rebel, right?We can't let the generals of the Song Dynasty feel, oh, it's so chilling, look at this emperor's random suspicion, and we can't let the Liao Dynasty feel that the internal military morale of the Song Dynasty is actually unstable, right?300,000 coins. If it’s less, we can’t pay it back.Therefore, the small matter of the emperor being a variable is also a big matter in my heart, so I can only tolerate it.

This is just one thing in the Zenyuan War. As the leader of Song Zhenzong, when he makes every decision, how many dangerous, obscure, and hidden things he can only understand and cannot explain.Variables, only he knows.As future generations, if we insist on expecting him to lead his men to a happy victory like the heroes in some TV series, it would be too difficult for him.When I was young, I loved listening to the Peking Opera Mr. Mei Lanfang's "Mu Guiying Takes the Command". There is a libretto in it called "Peach Blossoms Immediately Majestic, Drops of Snow Splashing on Pomegranate Skirts".As long as you are alive, you should use every inch of your land, how can you give it to others?The feudal king is a clown, so it doesn't matter what I can do with a sword.This word is so well written, and it is so enjoyable to listen to it carefully.

Today we are talking about the Dream of the Zen Monastery in 1005. It is about the last time in Chinese history that although it was unpleasant, there was an innovative peace that was not always right, but peace was good after all.Even if we have to resort to war, isn’t the final result we want still peace?Du Mu, a poet of the Tang Dynasty, has a very famous poem called Tiwu Jiangtinglai about Xiang Yu. There is a sentence in it that says that the children of Jiangdong are so talented that their comeback is unknown.You, Xiang Yu, are so stubborn. Why are you afraid of being ashamed of Jiangdong's elders at this time? Why do you want to commit suicide?Are you going back to Jiangdong?Maybe he can make a comeback by recruiting his disciples and kill again.
This is Du Mu's poem, but it also has a theme.I also saw a poem about picking the Lord with the clouds.Since ancient times, people have said that Mr. Xianggong was too stupid and refused to cross the Yangtze River.If we really clean up and start from scratch, many lives will be in ruins.You Xiang Yu are really going to make a comeback.I don’t care whether I’m right or wrong, but how many people will die?Our program is called Civilization Journey. We are not just a program that tells historical stories. We also need to identify what is the direction of civilization among all the people and things we talk about.The last poem I just mentioned is obviously not as famous as the previous poem by Du Mu, right?But as soon as you listen to it, you will know that the concept behind this poem is more civilized. There is nothing mysterious about these two words. They are just the concepts that can best protect people, respect people, and develop people to this day., system, behavior, right?In 1005, the Song-Liao Zen-Yuan Alliance was signed, and the Liao army slowly withdrew from the North China Plain. Spring returned to the land, and the people were able to live and work in peace and contentment again.The Song Dynasty obviously did not win, but the Song Dynasty had the opportunity to become more civilized from now on.

Okay, see you in the next issue, 1006 AD.